Western Pacific: 16W// Eastern Pacific: 11E(KEVIN) and 12E(LINDA)// Atlantic: 06L(FRED), 11/09utc updates

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TD 16W.

11/00UTC.

TD 04W. WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. CIMSS MOTION VECTOR ANALYSIS AND JTWC HAND ANALYSIS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE JUST EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CIMSS ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS ONLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT MODEL-DERIVED CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF MORE MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER, WHICH IS BORNE OUT BY THE OVERALL PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM AT 0600UTC. OUTFLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY GOOD TO POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TUTT CENTERED ABOUT 1480 KM TO THE NORTHWEST. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH 24H. THEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE, WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING DOWN ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING THE OUTFLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DURING THIS TIME, THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72H. THE CONTINUING WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND WARM SSTS, WITH TD 16W MAINTAINING WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH 120H, THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 96H CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TD 16W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONFIRMS THAT TD 16W CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STUBBORN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DISPLACED ABOUT 185 KM TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE FLARING CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY VERY SYMMETRICAL IN APPEARANCE GIVEN THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) AFTER THE 0600UTC HOUR INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE MASS IS EXPANDING TO THE WEST, POSSIBLY INDICATING THE SHEAR MAY BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 30 KNOTS, ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE ADT ESTIMATE.

TD 16W. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACKERS CLUSTERED WITHIN A TIGHT 90 KM ENVELOPE AT 48H INCREASING TO 220 KM AT 120H. THE NVGM REMAINS THE POLEWARD OUTLIER, WHILE GFS MARKS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER, PARTICULARLY AFTER 72H AS IT TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENTLY MIXED, WITH ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT SHIPS-GFS INDICATING A GENERALLY FLAT INTENSITY TREND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST JUST ABOVE THE CONSENSUS THROUGH 24H, THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION AFTER 96H INDUCES LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER THIS POINT.

EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 11E(KEVIN). WARNING 16 ISSUED AT 11/10UTC.

TS 11E(KEVIN). GUIDANCE.

TS 12E(LINDA). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 11/10UTC. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 14/06UTC.

TS 12E(LINDA). GUIDANCE.

11/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. TS 06L(FRED). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC.

TS 06L. GUIDANCE.