Western North Pacific: a couple of Invests//North Indian:TC 04B land-fall(exceptional in August)//TC 04L building a bit, 20/09utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 93W AND OVER-LAND TC 04B.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 131.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 538 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 93W.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN BUT HAVE DISPARITY IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF 93W WITH ECMWF BEING THE SURPRISE AGGRESSOR HERE AND GFS BEING MORE LAID BACK. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE HIGH MEMBER GROUPING AND SHOW 93W GETTING TO THAT OF STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN BUT HAVE DISPARITY IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF 93W WITH ECMWF BEING THE SURPRISE AGGRESSOR HERE AND GFS BEING MORE LAID BACK. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE HIGH MEMBER GROUPING AND SHOW 93W GETTING TO THAT OF STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 96.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION OF INVEST 97W HAS BEEN RELOCATED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST FROM THE 0000Z STARTING POINT. THE INITIAL 0000Z POSITION WAS PLACED ON A BROAD, EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A CURVED BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE SWATH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE TO SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEWLY CENTERED POSITION OF INVEST 97W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE INVEST LIES IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT DUE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THOUGH THE SHEAR IS MOSTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRC ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TUTT, AND 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL DIRECTION BUT NOT INTENSIFICATION OF 97W. AS IS TYPICAL, GFS IS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT AS IT DEVELOPS THE INVEST INTO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS, WHILE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MORE OF A 72 HOUR DEVELOPMENT CYCLE BEFORE REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE POSITIONING RELATIVE TO THE TUTT, THE GFS SOLUTION CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED HOWEVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL DIRECTION BUT NOT INTENSIFICATION OF 97W. AS IS TYPICAL, GFS IS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT AS IT DEVELOPS THE INVEST INTO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS, WHILE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MORE OF A 72 HOUR DEVELOPMENT CYCLE BEFORE REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.

REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 86.8E. 19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM THE COASTAL REGION OF KOLKATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN INDIA, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEGRADE BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.

WTNT44 KNHC 200832 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 We have a much better view of the low clouds on the western side of the disturbance in proxy-visible satellite imagery than we did last evening when they were obscured by high-level cirrus, and the low clouds' south-to-north motion just off the coast of Mexico suggests that the disturbance still does not have a closed surface circulation. However, a mid-level circulation remains evident and is the focus of a recent resurgence in deep convection. It is assumed that the maximum winds in the system are still 30 kt, but an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight scheduled for later this morning should give us a better idea of the disturbance's structure and intensity. The disturbance continues to move northwestward at 12 kt, and model guidance is in fairly good agreement that a steady northwestward or north-northwestward motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so. This trajectory should bring the system inland near or just south of the mouth of the Rio Grande late this afternoon or evening, which is the same scenario that has been indicated in previous advisories. There remains uncertainty if the disturbance will be able to develop a closed surface circulation--and become a tropical cyclone--before it reaches the coast later today. At best, the global models are resolving a well-defined vorticity maximum at about 5000 ft above the surface and perhaps a surface trough near the coast of Mexico, but none of them explicitly show the development of a well-defined surface circulation. As long as deep convection continues, however, it could spur the development of a surface center before reaching the coast. That said, the new NHC forecast now only shows the system reaching a peak intensity of 35 kt, which is still above all of the guidance. A remnant low position is provided at 36 hours for continuity, but it's more likely that the system will have dissipated by then--if it even forms at all.