Western North Pacific: 95W still under watch, located 890km to Guam

Small-sized system. Only two models develop it modestly. But models might under-estimate the development potential due to the compactness of the disturbance. Keeping tabs on it.

NVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019:
Location: 6.2°N 148.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZMAR2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 155.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 562
NM SOUTHEAST OF NAVAL BASE GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140322Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LLC BELOW A BROAD REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. 95W IS
CURRENTLY UNDER LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE DUE TO ROBUST SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SSTS ARE FAVORABLE (28-30C) FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK BUT VARY
ON INTENSITY, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICTING POSSIBLE FORMATION AS A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND THE ECMWF AND UKMO BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS ASSESSMENT DUE TO MODEL
SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.