WNP: 01W(DUJUAN) 45knots, still fighting wind shear, slowly approaching Mindanao, 19/09utc update

01W(DUJUAN). 19/09UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THE CORE CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EASTERLY WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG. THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE FLARING CONVECTION.

01W(DUJUAN). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 19/09UTC.ANALYSIS REVEALS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WHICH REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE (20 KTS) EASTERLY WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE AT 29-30C. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 01W REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL STR PATTERN, HOWEVER IT HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS 6-12 HOURS AS THE STR CENTERED TO THE EAST HAS EXTENDED AND MOVED WESTWARD. THE OVERALL TRACK MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY SIMULTANEOUSLY TAKES ON A MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. TS 01W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO NEAR 36H BEFORE TRACKING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND INTO THE NORTHERN SULU SEA BY 72H. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO CONSISTENTLY MAINTAIN A CORE, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, WITH CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OCCURRING NEAR DIURNAL MAXIMUM, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE NET TREND WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY 12H, THEN STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72H AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. AFTER 72H, TS 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR CENTERED TO THE EAST, AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA PRIOR TO 96H. THE STEERING PATTERN WEAKENS AFTER 96H, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THROUGH 120H. ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS, WHICH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER THE CENTRALSOUTH CHINA SEA BY 120H.

01W(DUJUAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE, IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH UNREALISTICALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 500KM SPREAD AT 120H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.

01W(DUJUAN). 19/0325UC. MICROWAVE COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A SYMMETRICAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST.

01W(DUJUAN). 19/06UTC.

19/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 01W AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 21S. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.