Typhoon Lingling: intensifying into category 3 within 24h. TS 14W: update

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 23.5°N 125.4°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WDPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AFTER A
MOMENTARY 12-HR NORTHEASTWARD JOG. TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS, MOSTLY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED 20NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A SHARPLY-OUTLINED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND RCTP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AT 28-29C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TY 15W HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST ASSUMED STEERING.      
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD UNDER THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, IT
WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE YELLOW SEA AS THE STR
RECEDES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF NORTH KOREA
NEAR HAEJU SHORTLY AFTER TAU 60. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS AT TAUS
24-36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS IN THE YELLOW SEA
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, AS TY 15W DRAGS ACROSS
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH KOREA, IT WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY LINGLING WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 NORTH OF VLADIVOSTOK, RUSSIA. CONCURRENTLY,
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS
AND RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
GFS AS THE NOTABLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TRACK SPEEDS OVER RUGGED TERRAIN, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF
MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY GFS TRACK INTO THE STR.//
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TS 14W
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 18.5°N 156.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts : 45kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 041811Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE AND
INHIBITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A MODERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING VENTILATION
TO THE OFFSET CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AT 5-15KTS ARE
MOSTLY FAVORABLE. TS 14W IS TRACKING OVER WARM SSTS (30C) UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR.
AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND
THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AFTER IT PASSES
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
SLOW THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 72 AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD JAPAN ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS, MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 96
OVER HONSHU SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 70KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY AT
TAU 96, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KANTO PLAIN, EXITING BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AFTER TAU 108 BEFORE TRANSFORMING INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, POSSIBLY
INDICATING EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TY 15W, FORECAST
TO BE POSITIONED OVER NORTH KOREA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS, HOWEVER,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
NAVGEM, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED OVER LAND.//
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Remnants of TD KAJIKI(16W)
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 18.2°N 109.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb