Typhoon Lingling(15W): rapid intensification possible, 14W update, Kajiki: final warning

Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS 14W
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 17.8°N 159.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts : 45kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING MSI AND A 032319Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS
ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES,
CORROBORATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, GIVEN ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHWEST, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 10
TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD, BUT IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. TS 14W IS TRACKING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (AT
LEAST 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL DIMINISHES IN THE COMING DAYS, THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
RECURVE TOWARD JAPAN. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INTENSIFY
TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POORER AGREEMENT, WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK AND
CROSS-TRACK ERRORS. HOWEVER, AN EVENTUAL RECURVE SCENARIO IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TY LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 22.1°N 124.6°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A RAGGED EYE, WHICH HAS
RECENTLY CLEARED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A FORWARD EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 032241Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BUT
RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/4.5 FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AND THE REAPPEARANCE OF THE RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHWEST, GIVEN THAT MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 15W CONTINUES ITS TEMPORARY NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION, IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
NORTHEAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR TY 15W THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE STR
BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST, TY 15W WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36
TO 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT TY 15W WILL
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE LONG TERM, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 48,
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TY 15W TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA, BEGINNING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remnants of TD KAJIKI(16W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 04, 2019:
Location: 17.0°N 107.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 107.5E.
03SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
79 NM NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET.