Typhoon Kalmaegi and TD 28W: updates at 19/15UTC

Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY KALMAEGI (27W)
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 19, 2019:
Location: 19.4°N 122.5°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OBLONG EYE HAS COLLAPSED DUE TO DETERIORATING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE STILL EXISTENT IN A
190951Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION PRIMARILY OFFSET TO THE
NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND A 191035Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 76 KNOTS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE COUNTERACTING STRONG (25-
30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL
MARGINAL. TY 27W IS DRIFTING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA TO THE
WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TY 27W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS THE
STR TO THE WEST BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE
INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) AND LAND INTERACTION AS IT CROSSES OVER LUZON,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND AFUM, THERE IS STRONG CROSS TRACK AGREEMENT AND
FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, LENDING
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TD 28W
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 19, 2019:
Location: 14.6°N 130.0°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN A 190911Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0-2.0 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SST, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48. TD 27W WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON AT TAU 72 AS STRONG (30-35 KNOTS) SHEAR IMPEDES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A GUIDANCE SPREAD OF 200NM AT TAU 48.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NORTHWEST OF LUZON. INCREASING VWS (40-50 KNOTS) WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED AT TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF TRACK; HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK IS CURRENTLY HEDGED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GROUPING (JGSM, ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE). THE NORTHERN GROUPING OF GLOBAL MEMBERS (NAVGEM AND AFUM) EXPECTS A TRACK CLOSER TO TAIWAN. THIS UNCERTAINTY LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN