Typhoon 14W(MUIFA): from CAT 2 to CAT 4 next 24h//Invest 93W:medium//Invest 92W//HU 06L(EARL): ETT, 1015utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 14W(MUIFA).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED TYPHOON WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION PUNCTUATED BY A 24-NM EYE. LONG CIRRI STREAKS WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY INDICATE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100952Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT IN THE EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VWS OVER WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MUIFA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING CHINA VIA THE YELLOW SEA WILL WEAKEN THE STR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. BEHIND THE TROUGH, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOMENTARILY COMPETE FOR STEERING. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONES SPEED OF ADVANCE UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL REGAIN FULL STEERING AND ACCELERATE TY 14W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 115KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST IN THE EAST CHINA SEA, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING DURING THE SLOW TRACK MOTION, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH, VWS WILL ALSO INCREASE, LEADING TO A STEADY EROSION AND BY 120, TY 14W WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 90NM BY TAU 72 AND 240NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THAT IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 159.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 158.4E, APPROXIMATELY 962 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091823Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL TRACK NORTH- NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL TRACK NORTH- NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 092054Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TRACKING TO WEST- SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL GRADUALLY TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL GRADUALLY TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT.

000 WTNT41 KNHC 101436 TCDAT1 Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022 Earl continues to undergo extratropical transition as it merges with the mid-latitude trough seen in GOES-16 airmass imagery near and to the west of the hurricane. The central convection is starting to shear away from the low-level center and cold-air clouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation. The initial intensity is reduced to 80 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates. Earl should complete extratropical transition during the next 6 h or so, with the system maintaining hurricane-force winds during this time. After that, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during the next 72 h as it moves over the open North Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first 48 h to match the trend of the intensity guidance, and then is similar to the previous forecast. Earl has turned a little to the left and slowed its forward motion since the last advisory, with the initial motion now 025/25 kt. As Earl merges with the mid-latitude trough, an additional significant decease in forward speed is expected during the next 12 h, followed by a slow northeastward motion that should continue through Sunday night. Subsequently, Earl should be steered generally eastward by the mid-latitude westerlies. The new forecast track has been shifted to the northwest of the previous track during the first 36 h and is close to the previous track thereafter. The northwestward shift of the track, along with Earl's large wind field, is expected to lead to strong winds occurring over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday, after Earl becomes a post-tropical low. 2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 42.9N 53.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 44.4N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1200Z 45.0N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 45.2N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z 45.4N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z 45.3N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1200Z 45.3N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven