Typhoon 14W(MUIFA): RI:+40kts over 24h//TD 15W forecast to reach Typhoon level by 48h//06L(EARL): ET//1103utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 14W(MUIFA) AND 15W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20NM ROUND EYE WITH CORE CONVECTION RAPIDLY CYCLING WITHIN THE EYEWALL. DESPITE LINGERING OVER A SLIGHTLY COOLER (27-28C) POOL OF WATER FROM STY 12W, TY 14W HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPLETE EYEWALL SURROUNDING A SYMMETRIC EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND HOURLY RJTD RADAR FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE KNES, RJTD AND PGTW FIXES, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 101738Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE AS WELL AS CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKI-JIMA, WHICH ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 14W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR EXTENDING FROM SHIKOKU ISLAND WESTWARD TO SHANGHAI. A NEARLY-STATIONARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST CHINA WITH A WIND MAXIMUM OVER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO SOUTH KOREA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WEAK WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND PVA WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, THEREFORE, NOT DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO BREAK DOWN THE STR TO THE NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, TY 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS THEN STEADY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CHINA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE STR BUILDS OVER WESTERN JAPAN AND THE EAST CHINA SEA, SHIFTING THE JET FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTH KOREA. AFTER TAU 72, TY 14W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS, SKIRTING THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MODEL SPREAD VARIES FROM 75NM AT TAU 48 TO 100NM AT TAU 72. THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (EPS AND GEFS) ALSO SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. GFS AND ECMWF DRIVE THE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CHINA WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SKIRTS THE COAST THUS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH RELIABLE GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. HWRF INDICATES A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS WHILE COAMPS-TC (GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) IS AROUND 110-120 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE INCREASING INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. A 102254Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND EASTERN QUADRANT WITH SHALLOW, WEAK BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE COMPLEX AND MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH THE TUTT EXTENDING FROM A TUTT CELL NEAR 30N 168E TO JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT PROVIDING AN EASTWARD CHANNEL INTO THE TUTT CELL. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 15W HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WITHIN A MARGINALLY- FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL EVOLVE AS THE STRONG TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST TRACKS WESTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST RE-ALIGNS INTO A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION, WHICH WILL STEER TD 15W NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE TUTT CELL SHIFTS TO THE NORTH, PROVIDING A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH WILL AID IN INTENSIFICATION. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 72 OVER WARM SST (28C). AFTER TAU 72, SST WILL GRADUALLY COOL WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. TD 15W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 75NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE 101800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) ARE ALSO IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES, MAINLY ALONG- TRACK, WITH A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TRACK SPEEDS THUS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PEAK INTENSITY VARYING FROM 70 KNOTS TO 84 KNOTS AT TAU 72. HWRF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 84. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM DUE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT (CURRENTLY) AND THE TUTT CELL. THE 101800Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 40 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIMEFRAME.

000 WTNT41 KNHC 102040 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022 Satellite imagery shows that Earl has completed extratropical transition, with well-developed frontal features and a central core that is void of deep convection. While recent scatterometer overpasses did not sample the strongest winds, it showed that Earl remains both large and powerful as an extratropical low. So, the initial intensity is set at 75 kt at this time. The global models are in good agreement that the system should gradually weaken during the forecast period, with the maximum winds dropping below hurricane force between 12-24 h. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Earl has slowed its forward speed considerably since the last advisory, with the motion now 025/9 kt. A slow movement toward the northeast is expected during the next 36 h as the system merges with a mid-latitude trough. After that, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to move eastward through 96 h, followed by an east-northeastward motion. The track guidance has shifted southward between 36-72 h, and the new forecast track is adjusted southward during that time as well. The forecast slow motion, along with Earl's large wind field, will cause strong winds over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland from this afternoon through Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada. The is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Earl. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday. 2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 43.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 11/0600Z 44.3N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1800Z 44.8N 51.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0600Z 45.0N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1800Z 44.9N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0600Z 44.7N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 44.7N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z 45.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1800Z 47.5N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven