Typhoon 10W(HAIKUI) crossing TAIWAN//09W(SAOLA)dying over the Gulf of Tonkin//11W(KIROGI) Final Warning//Invest 96W//0303utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 09W(SAOLA)AND 10W(HAIKUI). FINAL WARNING ON 11W(KIROGI) WAS ISSUED AT 03/03UTC. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 09W,10W AND 11W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CLOUD FILLED 10NM EYE WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 022237Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WALL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 022204Z SOIL MOISTURE ACTIVE PASSIVE (SMAP) PASS INDICATES A STRONG BAND OF 100-105KT (CONVERTED 1-MIN AVERAGE) WINDS IS WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SMAP DATA FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE 94-115KTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 10W (HAIKUI) IS LIKELY AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 06. CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, WHICH MAY FUEL VERY LIMITED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 06, 10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THE SYSTEM MAY BRIEFLY BE DEFLECTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE REGAINING ITS ANTICIPATED WESTERLY TRACK, WEAKENING TO AROUND 75KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER QUICKLY TRANSITING THE TAIWAN STRAIT, 10W WILL MAKE ITS SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACK INLAND IT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO 35KTS BY TAU 72 AND BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE FULLY DISSIPATED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS TAKING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. AFTER TAU 36, GFS AND HAFS-A TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY EQUATORWARD, WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE GENERAL WESTWARD MARCH THROUGH DISSIPATION. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST TREND. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THERE AFTER.

022204Z SOIL MOISTURE ACTIVE PASSIVE (SMAP) PASS INDICATES A STRONG BAND OF 100-105KT (CONVERTED 1-MIN AVERAGE) WINDS IS WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.

030300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 141.2E. 03SEP23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED SHALLOW CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BRISK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WINDS PROVIDING AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FANNING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM TOO WEAK (KNES) TO T2.0 (RJTD). A 022025Z SMAP PARTIAL PASS AND 021840Z HY-2C PASS TOPPED OUT AT 28 KNOTS. WHILE A FEW CONVECTIVE POCKETS IN THE PERIPHERY MAY HAVE SOME HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED, THESE ARE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE ANALYZED 145 NM RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR. TD KIROGI SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD AS IT DISSIPATES OVER WATER DUE TO STRONG (30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY LOW MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 90300Z IS 1002 MB. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 11 FEET.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W (SAOLA) RECENTLY ENTERED THE GULF OF TONKIN AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL SOUTHWESTERN TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THOUGH THE OHC AND SST VALUES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE FAMOUSLY HIGH, DECREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL STIFLE ANY POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, EVENTUALLY REACHING 25KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TRACK SPEED WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEING TO CURVE BACK TOWARD HAINAN BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEAR TAU 48.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED AND PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC THAT JUST RECENT ENTERED THE GULF OF TONKIN. AS POORLY DEFINED AS THE CIRCULATION IS, SURFACE OBSERVATION HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY LOCALIZATION TOOL. OBSERVATIONS FROM BEIHAI AND ZHANJIANG CHINA INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESPECTIVELY, OTHERWISE CONFIRMING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN THE TWO SITES (OVER WATER). A 022242Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS FAR REMOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUCH AS CIMSS ADT, AIDT AND D-PRINT INDICATING 25-36KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN SEPARATING INTO TWO GROUPS, COAMPS-TC, NVGM, HAFS-A AND ECMWF CARRY THE SYSTEM TOWARD VIETNAM UNTIL DISSIPATION WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS FOLLOW THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION. FOR THIS REASON, THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAFS-A, RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS REGARDLESS OF TRACK, FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TREND THROUGH DISSIPATION. HAFS-A IS IN GALAXY ON ITS OWN AND INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM OVER MAINLAND VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 96 BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM. THAT BEING SAID, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 138.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH A LARGE BAND OF OVER HEAD CONVECTION DRIVING TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE BUILDING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED 90W IS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VWS (2030KTS), DUAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH EAST AND SOUTH WEST AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD, WITH NEGLIGIBLE INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS, AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.