Typhoon 05W(DOKSURI) from CAT 1 US to CAT 4 in only 24h to skirt NE tip of LUZON in 36h//TS 05L(DON)//Invest 91W//Invest 95L//2409utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TY 05W(DOKSURI).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS CERTAINLY PUT ON A SHOW OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FROM 65 KNOTS 24 HOURS AGO, TO 115 KNOTS AT PRESENT. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAGGED, CLOUD FILLED 25NM WIDE EYE, WHICH HAS SHRUNK IN SIZE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT HAS ALSO BECOME LESS DEFINED. A 240458Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A VERY CLEAR LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MUCH LARGER 89GHZ EYE FEATURE. THE 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL OPEN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE, WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY A LINGERING EFFECT OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT IS STUBBORNLY REMAINING IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, THE 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A STATIONARY BANDING COMPLEX (SBC) ARCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND CONNECTING WITH THE EYEWALL IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AS WELL AS A SLIVER OF A DEVELOPING MOAT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THESE FEATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOR TY 05W GOING FORWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ON THE HIGHER END OF THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE VERY AGGRESSIVE ADT ESTIMATES, MORE IN LINE WITH THE DPRINT (112 KTS) AND DMINT (113 KTS) ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BRIEFLY PEAKED AROUND 240130Z BASED ON THE EYE AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, WHICH HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY COOLED AND WARMED RESPECTIVELY. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND AMSR2 WINDSPEED MEASUREMENTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF KYUSHU, AS WELL AS A CHANNEL EASTWARD INTO A WEAKENING TUTT-CELL TO THE EAST. SSTS REMAIN VERY WARM (29-30C) BUT OHC VALUES ARE TRENDING LOWER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER HAVING PERSISTED IN A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKING A TURN ONTO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, THOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OR IS JUST A SHORT-TERM WOBBLE. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS FINALLY BROKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM CHINA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT SITS SOUTH OF KYUSHU. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 05W TO TRACK ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A TRACK THAT SKIRTS THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON AROUND TAU 36, THEN MOVING SOUTHWEST OF TAIWAN, TO A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF XIAMEN, CHINA AROUND TAU 96. TROCHOIDAL MOVEMENT OR WOBBLES ABOUT THE MEAN TRACK CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM REACHES PEAK INTENSITY BUT THE OVERALL TRACK VECTOR WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE LOW TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24 HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CHOKE OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LEAVING JUST THE MESOSCALE RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WESTWARD CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESENCE OF THE SBC AND THE MOAT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EYEWALL IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) IS IN THE OFFING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HAFS-A MODEL PACKAGE AS WELL, WHICH SHOWS AN EWRC IN FULL SWING BY TAU 30. HENCE A PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 125 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IS LIKELY AS HIGH AS WE'LL GET BEFORE THE EWRC, AND INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF LUZON COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, DECREASING SSTS, INCREASED SHEAR AND DECREASED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WHICH MAY DISSIPATE FULLY BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE CONSENSUS ENVELOPE NOW JUST 75NM WIDE AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 150NM BY TAU 72. THE GFS REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER AND HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST, CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN TAIWAN, WITH THIS RUN BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS CONTAINED WITHIN A VERY TIGHTLY PACKED CLUSTER AROUND THE CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK. ENSEMBLE MEANS, AS WELL AS THE SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS MEAN AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. FOR THE MOST PART, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS (EXCEPT GFS) SHOWING ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE EWRC FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. INTERESTINGLY THE RIPA, RICN AND RIDE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS ARE STILL TRIGGERED, TAKING THE PEAK TO AN UNREALISTIC 150 KNOTS BY TAU 24, THOUGH THIS IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST HUGS THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3N 144.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 381 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF FLARING AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETERY REVEALED A BROAD CIRCULATION RELATIVELY WEAK CIRCULATION, WITH SOME HIGH WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AS PART OF A WESTERLY WIND BURST, BUT OTHERWISE SHOWS WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (30C) SSTS, AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW COMING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF TY 05W TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SPEED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48, WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A SIMILAR TIMELINE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP SPEED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48, WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE PREDICTING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A SIMILAR TIMELINE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE THROUGH TAU 48, BEFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER.