Typhoon 04W(TALIM) peaking and crossing LEIZHOU peninsula landfall near VIETNAM/CHINA border shortly after 24h//Invest 98W//1703utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TY 04W(TALIM).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM (400+ NM ACROSS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) THAT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS ITS EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE RAGGED BUT DEFINED 30-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND LINED UP WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FROM THE 162324Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE SCS OFFSETTING THE LOW-MEDIUM VWS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE WARM SCS, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR ZHANJIANG AROUND TAU 15, THEN CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL NEAR THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER AROUND TAU 27. TY 04W HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AND WILL NOW GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE MOSTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A 141NM BY TAU 48. IN VIEW OF THIS AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN A LAND TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 136.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP BROAD CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 170001Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FEW 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EAST- NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A LARGER SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET FURTHER SOUTH OF LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 48.