Typhoon 02W(MAWAR) intensifying to CAT 3 US within 24hours then bearing down on GUAM//Remnants of TC 19S(FABIEN)//2215utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TY 02W(MAWAR). 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 19S(FABIEN) WERE DISCONTINUED AT 212100UTC AND 220530UTC RESPECTIVELY.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WE HAVE HIT A LUCKY STREAK OF SATELLITE DATA, WITH BULLSEYE PASSES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) ALL IMPROVING THE JTWC FORECAST. STARTING OFF WITH 220808Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS IMPROVING CORE CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AROUND A MICROWAVE EYE AND ROBUST BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 220821Z RCM-2 SAR PASS FURTHER REINFORCED BY A LATER 221112Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS SHOWS AN IMPROVED SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 60-70KT WINDS FULLY ENCIRCLING THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND MAX WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PLETHORA OF SATELLITE DATA INCLUDING SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SAR AND ASCAT-B PASSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW, RJTD AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECTING 90KTS. FURTHERMORE, CIMSS D-MINT AS WELL AS THE RECENT SAR DATA ALSO SUPPORT THE JTWC INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90KTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W (MAWAR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER RIDGE TO THE EAST. 02W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AS 02W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY, THE SYSTEM WILL COCOON ITSELF IN A MOISTURE POCKET AND GENERALLY SHRUG OFF THE DRY AIR BEING FUNNELED EQUATORWARD BY THE STR TO THE WEST. THESE ELEMENTS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 105KTS BY TAU 36. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE NER TO THE EAST WILL REORIENT AND SHIFT POLEWARD, FORCING 02W TO ALTER COURSE AND STEADY UP ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. AFTER PASSING EQUATORWARD OF GUAM, 02W WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) TO CONTINUE GAINING STRENGTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125KTS BY TAU 120, WHICH IS JUST SHORT OF SUPER-TYPHOON STRENGTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 65NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 48 AFTER WHICH A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF CROSS TRACK SPREADING TAKES PLACE. FOR THIS REASON, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS AS WELL AS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS INDICATING PERSISTENT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.