Tropical Cyclone Kyarr(04A), category 1, rapid intensification possible next 48h

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NORTH INDIAN

TC Kyarr(04A)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 26, 2019:
Location: 16.7°N 70.8°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 70.5E.
26OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
CENTER. A 252343Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS SET ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BELOW A
252042Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 76 KTS AND A 260115Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 77 KTS. TC 04A REMAINS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM AND RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KTS
BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TC 04A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STRS) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. AT TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS A WEST TO EAST PASSING
TROUGH WEAKENS THE STRS. BY TAU 120, THE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK IN, SLOWING THE SYSTEM AND TURNING IT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
DEPICT THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND SEVERITY
OF THE TROUGH VARIES, INDUCING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. NAVGEM AND GALWEM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, PREDICTING LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN INDIA. CONVERSELY, ECMWF SHOWS THE SMALLEST AND LATEST
PASSING OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN THE MOST WESTERN SOLUTION WITH A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT TAU 96. THE
GFS MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH ITS SOLUTION NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
120, AFTER WHICH IT TURNS TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE
NORTHWARD TURN OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO
THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
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