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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 98W AND INVEST 92A.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 98W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 051200UTC.
9823060412 113N1355E 20
9823060418 116N1352E 20
9823060500 120N1347E 20
9823060506 124N1344E 20
9823060512 123N1348E 20
9823060418 116N1352E 20
9823060500 120N1347E 20
9823060506 124N1344E 20
9823060512 123N1348E 20
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 050600UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 050017Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 92A. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 051200UTC.
9223060418 99N 669E 15
9223060500 104N 665E 25
9223060506 107N 663E 30
9223060512 110N 661E 30
9223060500 104N 665E 25
9223060506 107N 663E 30
9223060512 110N 661E 30
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 051300UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 66.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 66.1E, APPROXIMATELY 826 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 050910Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS FURTHER REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE VERY WARM (30-31C) AND SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
Storm Tracks (ECMWF Ensemble)
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/SOUTH CHINA SEA: INVEST 99W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 051200UTC.
Global + Hurricane Models
