Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 95W//Invest 91P is Medium//Invest 96W// 12/06utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 95W.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING IS OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN A 120440Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE 1KM IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 166.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 169.8E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120510Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 167.8E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NENDO, SOLOMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 112229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. A 112229Z ASCAT-B REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION 25-30 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-40 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.