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NORTH ATLANTIC: INVEST 92L. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 181200UTC.
9223061600 88N 217W 15
9223061606 93N 224W 15
9223061612 96N 235W 15
9223061618 98N 244W 15
9223061700 100N 252W 20
9223061706 100N 261W 20
9223061712 100N 266W 20
9223061718 99N 278W 20
9223061800 98N 292W 20
9223061806 97N 306W 25
9223061812 97N 319W 25
9223061606 93N 224W 15
9223061612 96N 235W 15
9223061618 98N 244W 15
9223061700 100N 252W 20
9223061706 100N 261W 20
9223061712 100N 266W 20
9223061718 99N 278W 20
9223061800 98N 292W 20
9223061806 97N 306W 25
9223061812 97N 319W 25
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 181500UTC.
WTNT21 KNGU 181500 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF 9.7N AND 31.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATE THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING NEAR 9.7N AND 31.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 12 KNOTS AT A BEARING OF 270 DEGREES. 2. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 191500.
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Model Diagnostic Plot
2023al92_ctcxdiag_202306180600.png
(191.69 KB)
2023al92_hwrfdiag_202306181200.png (212.31 KB)
2023al92_avnodiag_202306181200.png (196.86 KB)
2023al92_hmondiag_202306181200.png (207.62 KB)
2023al92_hwrfdiag_202306181200.png (212.31 KB)
2023al92_avnodiag_202306181200.png (196.86 KB)
2023al92_hmondiag_202306181200.png (207.62 KB)