Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for INVEST 95P//INVEST 94P//INVEST 97P//07P(KIRRILY overland remnants// 0509utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 95P, THE OVERLAND REMNANTS OF TC 07P(KIRRILY ) AND ON INVEST 94P.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 172.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 177 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050109Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING TOWARDS ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE TRACK OF INVEST 95P CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND MAKE AN EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLEAR AGREEANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON THE SYSTEM GETTING UP TO 35 KNOTS THEN A SPLIT AROUND TAU 60 WITH SOME SHOWING A STEEP DECLINE AND OTHERS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050109Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING TOWARDS ITS CENTER.

GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE TRACK OF INVEST 95P CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND MAKE AN EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, GENERALLY TOWARDS FRENCH POLYNESIA WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLEAR AGREEANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS ON THE SYSTEM GETTING UP TO 35 KNOTS THEN A SPLIT AROUND TAU 60 WITH SOME SHOWING A STEEP DECLINE AND OTHERS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY.