Météo974
TS BAILU(12W)
Location: 18.6°N 126.1°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
INTENSIFYING
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
FROM THE LOW LEVEL BANDING SEEN ON A 222220Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS IN LINE WITH AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45-50 KTS) AND A 221719Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 12W
IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION, REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 12W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TS 12W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LIMITED BY MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ALLOW TS 12W TO REACH 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE
JTWC PEAK INTENSITY IS IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, TS 12W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. TS 12W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE
IS GOOD TRACK CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF ANOTHER STR TO THE NORTH. LAND
INTERACTION WITH CHINA WILL CAUSE TS 12W TO WEAKEN TO 15 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 735 NM BY TAU 96,
WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER, AND ECMWF THE EASTERN
OUTLIER WITH A TIGHT RECURVE PATH. THE JTWC TRACK IS HEDGED WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK
FORECAST. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RECURVE BEFORE COMPLETE
DISSIPATION, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
M974World
WESTERN NORTH PACIFICTS BAILU(12W)
Location: 18.6°N 126.1°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
INTENSIFYING
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
FROM THE LOW LEVEL BANDING SEEN ON A 222220Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS IN LINE WITH AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45-50 KTS) AND A 221719Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 12W
IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION, REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 12W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TS 12W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LIMITED BY MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ALLOW TS 12W TO REACH 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE
JTWC PEAK INTENSITY IS IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, TS 12W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. TS 12W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL IN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE
IS GOOD TRACK CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF ANOTHER STR TO THE NORTH. LAND
INTERACTION WITH CHINA WILL CAUSE TS 12W TO WEAKEN TO 15 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 735 NM BY TAU 96,
WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER, AND ECMWF THE EASTERN
OUTLIER WITH A TIGHT RECURVE PATH. THE JTWC TRACK IS HEDGED WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK
FORECAST. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RECURVE BEFORE COMPLETE
DISSIPATION, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
23/0149UTC
23/0128UTC
23/00UTC
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
