TS 14W(BEBINCA) re-intensifying after struggling//INVEST 93B// 1409utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 14W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 93B.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOPSIDED RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH THE BETTER OUTFLOW FAVORING THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. A POCKET OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS LINGERING EVIDENCE OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH WHICH HAS BEEN HINDERING TS BEBINCA'S DEVELOPMENT DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND SUBSIDENT AIR. A SECONDARY TUTT CELL ALSO EXISTS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PRODUCING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST. ANIMATED RADAR SCANS SHOW RADIAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BANDS AND A MORE INTENSE AREA OF CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND THE EASTERN INNERMOST BAND. A 140446Z AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE AND WAS USED ALONG WITH ANIMATED RADAR DATA TO DETERMINE THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY COULD ONLY BE ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WAS DETERMINED BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AID TRENDS, AND AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIVEN NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, BUT IT WILL SOON TURN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS A RESULT OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ACTING AS A STRONG BARRIER TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A FASTER PACE THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE WILL BE LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR TS 14W TO INTENSIFY MUCH FURTHER BEFORE IT ARRIVES AT THE ASIAN CONTINENT NEAR TAU 48. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN CHINA, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE WESTWARD TRACK INTO CHINA, WHICH CLOSELY MIRRORS THE JTWC FORECAST. THERE IS A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 55 NM IN THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 48. THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS TAU 72, WHICH SHOWS THE ECMWF TURNING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE GFS FAVORING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE TRACK CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS AGREEMENT AND A WIDER SPREAD OF INTENSITIES, WITH A 40-45 KT SPREAD AT TAU 24 AND TAU 36. CONSIDERING THE EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR AND LAND INTERACTION, THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.