TS 07W(LAN) exiting JAPAN//Long-lived TD 05E(DORA) not dead yet// HU 07E(FERNANDA) topped CAT 4 US// TS 08E(GREG)// 1509utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 07W(LAN) ON 05E(DORA) AND ON 08E(GREG).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THAT TS 07W (LAN) IS QUICKLY MARCHING OVER THE ISLAND OF HONSHU, ON ROUTE TO THE SEA OF JAPAN. SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM TAJIMA AND TOTTORI AIRPORT COMBINED WITH ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY HAVE AIDED TREMENDOUSLY IN LOCALIZING THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES OPEN OCEAN ONCE MORE. A 150425Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE WARM WATERS OUT AHEAD OF TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, AMSR2 AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AVAILABLE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES GENERALLY MATCHING CIMSS DPRINT OF 50KTS, WHICH IS ONE OF THE FEW AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT REPORTS OVER LAND.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS WE SPEAK, TS 07W (LAN) IS ONCE AGAIN MOVING BACK OVER OPEN OCEAN AND IS FORECAST TO PROCEED GENERALLY POLEWARD. AFTER ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN, WARM WATERS AND STEADILY IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL FIGHT TO OVERCOME GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE RESULT OF THE BATTLE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ANTICLIMACTIC, AS 07W STRUGGLES TO REORGANIZE AS IT IS QUICKLY MOVED POLEWARD. AS THE GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WOULD INDICATE, THERE IS A CHANCE 07W MAKES LANDFALL OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND DISSIPATES BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HOWEVER IS ONE OF GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR VALUES. NEAR THE 44TH PARALLEL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT FURTHER INCREASES ITS POLEWARD TRACK SPEED, THEREBY INITIATING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 120, NOW WELL INTO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK, 07W WILL LOSE ITS LAST REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE ETT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS FOLLOWING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMAL VARIABILITY THROUGH TAU 72. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TAU 24 AND AFTER THAT SHARPER DECLINE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 150541Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE T2.0 WHICH MATCHES CIMSS ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES OF 30-34KTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05E (DORA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY DETERRENT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AS 05E TRACKS POLEWARD, THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TUTT COMBINED WITH MODERATE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO EAT AWAY AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS THRIVING IN THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW AND LOWER SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE SAME TUTT CELL. THIS IS CREATING A UNIQUE SITUATION WHEREIN THE TWO SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE HOLDING EACH OTHER IN NEAR STEADY STATE AS THE WHOLE CIRCULATION PROPAGATES POLEWARD. BY TAU 36, THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUCCUMB TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT FOLLOWING THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW PATTERN AND NOT THE SURFACE-MID LAYER FLOW. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS QUICKLY AND UNREALISTICALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM WITH COAMPS-TC TAKING IT NEARLY BACK TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. SUFFICE TO SAY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ABOVE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, ALBEIT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.