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TS 06W(KHANUN) to peak at Typhoon Intensity by 48/72h close to OKINAWA//Invest 96L//05W(DOKSURI)Over-land remnants//2909utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TS 06W(KHANUN). 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 05W(DOKSURI) WERE ENDED AT 28/0900UTC AND 290530UTC RESPECTIVELY .
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TS 06W(KHANUN). 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 05W(DOKSURI) WERE ENDED AT 28/0900UTC AND 290530UTC RESPECTIVELY .


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 06W(KHANUN). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS: +10 KNOTS/24H.

0623072412  64N1426E  15
0623072418  72N1421E  15
0623072500  76N1418E  15
0623072506  81N1416E  15
0623072512  85N1416E  20
0623072518  88N1416E  20
0623072600  90N1417E  20
0623072606  94N1416E  20
0623072612  98N1414E  20
0623072618 107N1410E  20
0623072700 116N1405E  25
0623072706 121N1396E  25
0623072712 129N1375E  25
0623072718 129N1368E  30
0623072800 131N1362E  30
0623072806 136N1358E  35
0623072812 144N1350E  35
0623072818 151N1343E  35
0623072900 157N1337E  40
0623072906 163N1331E  45

WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 29/0900UTC.

TS 06W(KHANUN) to peak at Typhoon Intensity by 48/72h close to OKINAWA//Invest 96L//05W(DOKSURI)Over-land remnants//2909utc

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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A DEFINED CENTROID. MSI ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID AND IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 290455Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH INTENSE SPIRAL BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 290330Z BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALIGNING VERY WELL WITH THE CENTROID LOCATION. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA, THE 290000Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED 65NM SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. A PREVIOUS 282117Z SMAP IMAGE DEPICTED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-50 KNOT (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A DEFINED CENTROID. MSI ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID AND IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 290455Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH INTENSE SPIRAL BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 290330Z BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALIGNING VERY WELL WITH THE CENTROID LOCATION. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA, THE 290000Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED 65NM SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. A PREVIOUS 282117Z SMAP IMAGE DEPICTED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-50 KNOT (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.


TC Warning Graphic

FORECAST REASONING.  SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SHIFTED FORECAST TRACK WEST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION.  FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WILL TRACK NNW THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SW BOUNDARY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 34N 143E. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT EXPERIENCES THE EFFECTS OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND NORTHERLY SHEAR, ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN THE NW QUADRANT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE NW-WNW DUE TO THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 85KT WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 120.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SHIFTED FORECAST TRACK WEST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WILL TRACK NNW THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SW BOUNDARY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 34N 143E. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT EXPERIENCES THE EFFECTS OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND NORTHERLY SHEAR, ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN THE NW QUADRANT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE NW-WNW DUE TO THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 85KT WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 120.

Model Diagnostic Plot

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD RANGING FROM 117NM AT TAU 48 TO 135NM AT TAU 60. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (AEMN), MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. GFS AND AEMN INDICATE A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER OKINAWA WITH A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN ALONG THE EASTERN CHINA COAST BUT GFS APPEARS TO BE TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) INDICATES A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INLAND TO A SHARP POLEWARD TURN. THE 290000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (80 PERCENT) OF A WNW TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A POLEWARD TRACK. THE 290000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES A LOW  PROBABILITY (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT  84 HOURS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD RANGING FROM 117NM AT TAU 48 TO 135NM AT TAU 60. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (AEMN), MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. GFS AND AEMN INDICATE A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER OKINAWA WITH A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN ALONG THE EASTERN CHINA COAST BUT GFS APPEARS TO BE TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) INDICATES A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INLAND TO A SHARP POLEWARD TURN. THE 290000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (80 PERCENT) OF A WNW TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A POLEWARD TRACK. THE 290000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS.

HWRF 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure AT 29/00UTC: 89 KNOTS AT +90H.


RIPA Forecast AND RIPA STORM TABLE ATTACHED BELOW


Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)


Experimental 34-kt Wind Speed Probabilities


NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: INVEST 96L. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 29/0600UTC.


Model Diagnostic Plot


Intensity Guidance


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF STY 05W(DOKSURI). ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 130 KNOTS/CAT 4 US/SUPER TYPHOON.


0523071700  71N1362E  20
0523071706  73N1361E  20
0523071712  75N1360E  20
0523071718  77N1359E  20
0523071800  80N1357E  20
0523071806  81N1352E  20
0523071812  80N1347E  20
0523071818  79N1341E  20
0523071900  80N1333E  20
0523071906  86N1328E  20
0523071912  93N1322E  20
0523071918 102N1315E  20
0523072000 115N1318E  20
0523072006 124N1328E  20
0523072012 129N1335E  20
0523072018 137N1333E  20
0523072100 139N1328E  20
0523072106 141N1322E  20
0523072112 143N1318E  30
0523072118 144N1315E  30
0523072200 144N1310E  35
0523072206 144N1306E  35
0523072212 146N1301E  40
0523072218 148N1295E  45
0523072300 148N1290E  55
0523072306 149N1284E  65
0523072312 151N1277E  80
0523072318 152N1270E  90
0523072400 153N1266E 100
0523072406 157N1263E 115
0523072412 165N1258E 120
0523072418 170N1251E 130
0523072500 177N1246E 130
0523072506 184N1237E 125
0523072512 188N1227E 120
0523072518 188N1216E 115
0523072600 189N1213E 105
0523072606 193N1210E 100
0523072612 196N1206E  90
0523072618 200N1201E  85
0523072700 208N1198E  80
0523072703 208N1193E  80
0523072706 211N1193E  90
0523072712 218N1192E 105
0523072718 228N1190E 100
0523072800 240N1187E 100
0523072806 257N1184E  75
0523072812 274N1179E  55
0523072818 293N1173E  45
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, July 29th 2023 à 14:56