TS 06W(KHANUN)// TS 07W(LAN)// HU 05E(DORA) still powerful CAT 4 US// TD 07E(EUGENE)// 0806utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 06W(KHANUN) AND 07W(LAN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 05E(DORA).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, EXPOSED CENTER WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A CENTROID. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTROID ON THE MSI LOOP AND ALSO ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR WEAKENING. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SST OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH KOREA AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS, MAKING LANDFALL WEST OF BUSAN AROUND TAU 48, TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF SEOUL AROUND TAU 66, BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO NORTH KOREA THEN CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE AS SST WARMS AROUND THE ISLAND OF KYUSHU, JAPAN, THEN WITH INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FUELING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO 3OKTS NEAR SEOUL BY TAU 72 THEN TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120 AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES INTO CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 130NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND ERRATIC, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING EVEN AS THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD OF AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, AND INCREASING VENTILATION ALOFT, ONLY TEMPERED BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 07W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD YOKOSUKA AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 75KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 370NM BY TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.