TS 04W(TALIM) Typhoon intensity within 18h approaching LEIZHOU peninsula//HU 03E(CALVIN)//SS 05L(DON)//Invests 98W/99W//1603utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 04W(TALIM).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM (400+ NM ACROSS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) THAT CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS ITS EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING LOW CLOUD LINES INTO THE NOW PARTLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE AND WRAP IMPROVEMENTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) OFFSETTING THE MEDIUM TO HIGH VWS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TALIM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE WARM SCS, MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA NEAR ZHANJIANG AFTER TAU 36, THEN CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 54. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO 80KTS BY TAU 36 PRIOR TO INITIAL LANDFALL. LAND INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL THEN RAPID EROSION AFTER TAU 36, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A 265NM BY TAU 48, THEN TO OVER 400NM BY TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN A LAND TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.