TS 01W(SANVU) currently peaking is forecast to be torn apart by 96h due to high vertical wind shear//Invest 93W//2109utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 01W(SANVU).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL REGION OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FULLY OBSCURING THE LLCC WHILE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ARE EXPOSED TO THE WEST AS A RESULT OF DRY AIR INTRUSION. A 230306Z SUITE OF AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY SPECIFICALLY AN 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATE A KIDNEY BEAN SHAPED DEEP CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A SINGLE FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND ASMR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS AMONGST REPORTING DVORAK AGENCIES OF T3.0 AND CIMSS OPEN-AIR WHICH ALSO INDICATES 43KTS WHILE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 01W (SANVU) IS FORECAST TO EXIT A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A STR TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD ITS INFLUENCE. DURING THIS TIME, THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING 01W IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN A STALEMATE AS WARM SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT GENERALLY COUNTERACT STEADILY INCREASING MIDLEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT A FEW DEGREES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, LIES A SHARP GRADIENT OF BOTH MOISTURE AND VWS AND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THAT GRADIENT THE INTENSITY WILL CONSEQUENTLY FALL. NEAR TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE 12TH PARALLEL, INTENSITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS 01W TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD. AS VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE TORN APART AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN AS THE STR TAKES STEERING CONTROL. WHILE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY, THERE IS STILL A MILD AMOUNT OF CROSS TRACK SPREADING WITH NVGM, HWRF AND AFUM POLEWARD OF THE CONSENSUS WHILE COAMPS-TC, ECMWF AND JGSM AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE EQUATORWARD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DECAY-SHIPS, RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 01W WILL GENERALLY STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTER WHICH ALL MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND EVENTUALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.