TD 26W forecast to intensify significantly next 48H while approaching the Philippines//Invest 94W//2703utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 26W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA THAT IS DISORGANIZED BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE AND FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS EXTENDING OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NE-SW. THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERIES EXPOSE A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND ALSO SHOWS A STEADY STREAM OF STRATOCUMULUS LINES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD NORTHEAST SURGE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND ELONGATED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS MORE THAN 60NM TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LARGE AND RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 2213Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR WEAK SIGNATURE IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR AURORA PROVINCE, PHILIPPINES, AROUND TAU 60, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 84. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS THE STR IS WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY HIGHER. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN WILL REDUCE IT TO 55KTS, THE RE-INTENSIFY TO 60KTS AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INTO LUZON STRAIT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS WIDELY AND UNEVENLY SPREAD OUT TO 390 NM BY TAU 120 WITH NVGM ON THE LEFT- AND AEMN ON THE RIGHT-MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS, PLUS THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.