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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 21W AND 22W.3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 97W.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 21W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/06UTC. WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W IS EMBEDDED UNDER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, SUBTROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR 23N 152E. CONSEQUENTLY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCELERATING POLEWARD WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A 140641Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SMALL SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA, WHICH IS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK FIX.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 21W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 24.
MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A 70NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24. THE 140000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TS 21W WILL DISSIPATE AND THE REMNANTS WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGER, DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW (INVEST 91W). THIS NEWLY-DEVELOPED SUBTROPICAL LOW COULD THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK POLEWARD WITH EXPANDING GALE-FORCE WINDS. THIS COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MERGER WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TS 21W WILL DISSIPATE AND THE REMNANTS WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGER, DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW (INVEST 91W). THIS NEWLY-DEVELOPED SUBTROPICAL LOW COULD THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK POLEWARD WITH EXPANDING GALE-FORCE WINDS.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TD 22W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/06UTC. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 140240Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM, AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 12, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND. IN ADDITION TO THE ASCAT DATA, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL THUS THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON THE NEXT WARNING.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 97W.ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/06UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 14/06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 130.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM EAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 140030Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REFLECTS A SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 97W WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS WEST THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 97W WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS WEST THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT.
HWRF AT 14/00UTC: 99KT AT +72H AND ATTACHED IS AVN AT 14/00UTC: 73KT AT +96H
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 91W.ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/06UTC.
NORTH ATLANTIC: TS 14L(KARL). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 14/06UTC.NHC COMMENTS.
WTNT44 KNHC 140846 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that Karl remains disorganized this morning, with the low-level center at the northwestern edge of a newly-formed convective burst. Recent scatterometer data and earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not conclusively indicate any tropical-storm force winds in the system. However, the central pressure was near 1001 mb, and based on likely undersampling of the winds the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. The initial motion is southeastward or 140/5 kt. Karl should turn southward later today and then south-southwestward by tonight as the system reaches the periphery of a mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. This south-southwestward motion is expected to continue until Karl dissipates over Mexico between 36-48 h. While the forecast track follows the consensus models and has not changed much from the previous advisory, it should be noted that the GFS is an outlier in that it turns a weak and vertically shallow Karl more westward and keeps it offshore through 48 h. Moderate west-northwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and upper-level convergence affecting Karl should continue through landfall. Thus, little change in strength is likely before landfall, although it cannot be ruled out that Karl could weaken to a depression before reaching the coast. After landfall, the cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate between 36-48 h. Even, if the cyclone stays over water longer as suggested by the GFS, the generally hostile environment should not allow strengthening. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion of the warning area in southern Mexico by late today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 20.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.6N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
