TCFA: Invest 98W & Invest 99W //Invest 97W strong intensification possible next 120h//Invest 90W developing//TS 14L(KARL)//1209utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 98W AND INVEST 99W.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.4E. APPROXIMATELY 273 NM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), AND MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DETACHED FROM THE MAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO THE NORTHWEST. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS REVEALS THAT ELONGATED LLC WITH WIND FIELDS OF 20-25KTS FLOWING TOWARDS THE MAIN DETACHED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN PUSHED ALONG BY THE TUTT CELL NORTHEAST OF IT. THIS IS ALSO FURTHER CONFIRMED BY AN 112212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE BULLSEYE SHOWS THE LLCC EXPOSED WITH MAIN CONVECTION IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION LEADING TO EASTERN LUZON. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 98W TO DEVELOP IN, BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS RAPIDLY CLOSING DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY BEING FORKED OVER TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, NEUTRAL (15-20KTS) VWS, A DIMINISHING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND WARM 31-30C SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 98W MEANDERING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN AND ONGOING, BUT WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. AS EARLY AS TAU 12, MODEL TRACKERS JUMP SHIP ON 98W AND FOCUS MORE ON OTHER INVEST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION BUT SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FORECAST, IT IS JUMPING TO A DIFFERENT CIRCULATION AND THUS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY TREND FOR 98W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 98W MEANDERING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN AND ONGOING, BUT WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. AS EARLY AS TAU 12, MODEL TRACKERS JUMP SHIP ON 98W AND FOCUS MORE ON OTHER INVEST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION BUT SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FORECAST, IT IS JUMPING TO A DIFFERENT CIRCULATION AND THUS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY TREND FOR 98W.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED 15.8N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WELL HIDDEN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THIS LLC WAS REVEALED EARLIER IN A SCATTEROMETRY BULLSEYE THAT SHOWED ALONG THE NORTH, EAST, AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF 99W, THERE LIES WINDS FIELDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH EMBEDDED 25 KNOT WINDS. A 120349Z AMSR 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS LENT A HAND WITH REVEALING THE LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF 99W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 99W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM BEING WITHIN A BUBBLE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) THAT IS SURROUND BY A BARRIER OF 40-50KTS OF SHEAR TO THE NORTH. OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM IS FAIR TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SMALL TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL AND THE SSTS IN THE AREA WARM (29-30C) TO AID IN THE FUELING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED BY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THUS CAUSING IT TO RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALMOST COMPLETING A LOOP BY TAU 36, AND THEN HIGH TAIL IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THAT BARRIER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AS THE TUTT CELL MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED BY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THUS CAUSING IT TO RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALMOST COMPLETING A LOOP BY TAU 36, AND THEN HIGH TAIL IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THAT BARRIER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 309 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 120051Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLC REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. A 120233Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 90W STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT RANGING FROM 25- 30 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT TO KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to 33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later today. Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz and Tabasco states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting on Thursday night.