TC FANI(01B): wind shear=stalled intensification so far but improved envrionment=marked intensification forecast next 4 days

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TC FANI(01B)
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 28, 2019:
Location: 8.5°N 86.9°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 86.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT IT IS LARGELY OBSCURING THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATION
FROM SPIRAL BANDING IN A 280946Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS). INTENSIFICATION IS BEING
INHIBITED BY MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DESPITE
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ROUNDING
THE STR AXIS AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO
115 KTS BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, VWS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN, CAUSING
THE INTENSITY TO DROP OFF AS TC 01B APPROACHES INDIA. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGH WITH THE SPREAD BETWEEN UKMET AND NAVGEM
EXCEEDING 375 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST
EAST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WESTERN OUTLIER (UKMET) WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
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