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JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 22S(HALIMA).
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28/0145UTC.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 22S(HALIMA). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 28/03UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC HALIMA HAS PROGRESSIVELY SLOWED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE EAST AND THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY 24H, AS THE STEERING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDS WESTWARD. THE STRONG POLEWARD VENTING WILL BE THE ONLY HELP FOR TC HALIMA AS ALL OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TOO HARSH AS TC 22S DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DISSIPATING BETWEEN 36H AND 48H.
2222032700 196S 759E 65
2222032706 205S 768E 55
2222032712 210S 781E 50
2222032718 213S 792E 45
2222032800 217S 798E 45
2222032706 205S 768E 55
2222032712 210S 781E 50
2222032718 213S 792E 45
2222032800 217S 798E 45
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CIMSS ANALYSIS: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24HOURS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ERODING AS IT ENCROACHES UPON COOLER WATER AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 280041Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE AND THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTIPLE AGENCIES, THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND REFLECTS THE DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY STRONG VWS AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE LOW LEVELS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST.
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MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO 24H; AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS INCLUDING ECMWF, GFS, AEMN, AND EEMN LOOPING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD AND OTHER MEMBERS INCLUDING NAVGEM, AND UKMET CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. GIVEN THESE, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 27/18UTC UP TO +240H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AT 27/18UTC UP TO +240H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.
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28/02UTC.
