TC 19S(GOMBE):intensifying next 48h, rapid intensification possible prior to landfall over MOZ//Invests 96P & 98P: extratropical,09/15utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 19S(GOMBE).

09/0145UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC GOMBE IS NOW MOVING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING OVER THE VERY WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH FAVORABLE VWS AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUALLY FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS/CAT 1 US. THERE REMAINS AN EXTREME POSSIBILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) JUST BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR 48H. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DOWN TO DISSIPATION BY 96H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT IS BEGINNING TO REFORM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. FEEDER BANDS HAVE BECOME LARGER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR WITH THINNING BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OVER MADAGASCAR COAST. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MINIMAL LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MADAGASCAR COAST. TC GOMBE IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 96H WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 195KM. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LOSING THE VORTEX OVER LAND. GIVEN THIS, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO 48H AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER, DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RI.