TC 16S(ELEANOR) peakead at 60 Knots now weakening//TC 14P(LINCOLN) intensifying a bit next 24H// 10 Day ECMWF Storm Tracks//2306utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 14P(LINCOLN). JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 16S(ELEANOR).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN FLARING CONVECTION BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VORTEX TILT IN THE SAME DIRECTION. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTRIBUTES TO A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE SYSTEM. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENCOURAGED BY A JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C, ARE OFFSETTING THE STRONG (30 KNOTS OR GREATER) NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, PREVENTING RAPID DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) IMAGERY, PARTIALLY REVEALING AN LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGED OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ALSO ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 16S IS ANTICIPATED TO FULLY DISSIPATE TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT SLOWS TO 5KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOUR AS THE VORTEX SHALLOWS OUT DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IT IS ENGULFED BY DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. ONCE THE DECOUPLING PROCESS IS COMPLETE AROUND TAU 12, AND THE VORTEX BECOMES SHALLOWER, IT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DECLINE FROM 50KTS, TO 30 KNOTS OR LESS BY TAU 48 AS A RESULT OF THE SIGNIFICANT VWS AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR COMPLETELY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WILL TURN FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND TAU 12. JTWC CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK ERROR, ONLY OPENING TO 120NM BY TAU 48. JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ALSO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC WHICH EXPECTS A LOWER RATE OF WEAKENING INITIALLY BUT STILL ARRIVES AT 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P AS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WELL-STRUCTURED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED, AS DEPICTED BY THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA. CONVECTIVE BURSTS WERE SEEN DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION, BUT SO FAR HAVE FAILED TO WRAP UPSHEAR INTO THE DRY AIR. OUTFLOW ALOFT FOR 14P HAS REMAINED WEAK WITH NO DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 222204Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING A BROAD CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE WEST FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A 222204Z SMAP WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWING 32 KTS (34 KTS WHEN CONVERTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE).

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P HAS CONTINUED ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AT TAU 12 AS THE STR CHANGES ORIENTATION TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. AT AROUND TAU 24-36 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AT TAU 48, TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO START A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 14P IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VERY LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS AND WARM SST, WHICH HAS HELPED ORGANIZE THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 24 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAVE REMAINED THE MAIN FACTOR IN HINDERING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, VWS INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS, COOLING SST, AND LOWERING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM AT TAU 36 AND A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN MUCH LESS AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS (BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS) DEPICTING A NEAR-RAPID PACE OF INTENSIFICATION, UP TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING COAMPS-TC, HWRF AND HAFS-A DEPICT A SLOWER PACE OF INTENSIFICATION AND LOWER PEAK BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.