TC 16P(KEVIN) CAT 4 US rapidly weakening next 24h//TC 11S(FREDDY) new lease of life up to CAT 1 US by 36h//SS 15P(JUDY)//0415utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 16P(KEVIN). 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON TC 11S(FREDDY). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON SUBTROPICAL STORM 15P(JUDY).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNRAVELING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMING FRAGMENTED BEING WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC KEVIN IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSTANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A HEALTHY 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, OFFSET BY COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND MULTI-AGENCY FIX LOCATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. IT IS SET BASED OFF A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC KEVIN CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT HUGS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. BY TAU 12, TC KEVIN WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER VWS AND WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS AS A RESULT. BY TAU 24, TC KEVIN WILL CONTINUE ITS SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT SHOWING A CONTINUOUS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE FORECAST MODEL ENVELOPE HAS A 45 NM SPREAD BY TAU 24 WHICH PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES TO 129 NM BY TAU 36. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DECREASING TREND AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FREDDY HAS REGENERATED OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQU CHANNEL AFTER SPENDING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS STRUGGLING BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AFTER SPENDING SEVERAL HOURS IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE, TC FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE NER TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AND HEAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AS THIS OCCURS, TC 11S WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 65 KTS. AFTERWARDS, TC FREDDY WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WHILE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD, TC FREDDY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 96, THEN DROP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A CONTINUOUS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FOLLOWED BY A DRAMATIC TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 36. HOWEVER, THERE IS A NOTABLE SPREAD FOR THE INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS. BY TAU 12, THERE IS A 37 NM SPREAD WHICH GROWS TO A 98 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36. MOREOVER, THE TRACKS SPREAD EVEN FURTHER APART BY TAU 120 TO 172 NM. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC TRACK IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 72, AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ALL AGREE ON AN INTENSIFYING SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 96, THEN A DECREASE AFTERWARDS, BUT ARE SPREAD BY ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS OUT TO TAU 48, AND THEN QUITE SPORADIC AFTERWARDS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION COAMPS-TC AND DECAY SHIPS ARE ON THE LOWER END, WHEREAS GFS AND HWRF ARE ON THE HIGHER END. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 72, AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 120, FAVORING THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 174.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.7S 172.6W, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (JUDY) HAS BEEN COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND WILL REMAIN OVER COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040400Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS SHOW A WELL- DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE PARENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST DUE TO INTENSE (60-70 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW TC 15P TRACKING EASTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 48 TO 52 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 985 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.