TC 15P(JUDY) CAT 1 US intensifying and bearing down on Port Vila//TC 14S(ENALA)//Invest 96P//TC 11S(FREDDY) remnants//2809utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 15P(JUDY) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 14S(ENALA). 3HOURLY SATELLTE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 15P AND 14S.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH THICK CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ABOVE MSI ALSO REVEALS HINTS OF AN EYE TRYING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN. ANALYSIS OF THE 280457Z SSMIS 91GHZ AND THE 280249Z ATMS 183GHZ IMAGES INDICATE A MICROWAVE EYE IS NOW TAKING SHAPE, FURTHER INDICATING THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC JUDY TO BE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI, MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOLA (VANUA LAVA) AND SARATMATA WHICH INDICATE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM EASTWARD TO WESTWARD RESPECTIVELY OVER APPROXIMATELY A 65 NM SPAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PREVIOUS MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC JUDY CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT CROSSES THE STR AXIS TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS. TC JUDY WILL MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY AS IT MAKES A FURTHER SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 15P WILL PICK-UP IN TRACK SPEED AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 80 KNOTS AS IT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER VWS AND CONTINUAL DRY AIR FROM THE WEST BEING WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TC JUDY WILL CROSS OVER RELATIVELY COOLER (25-26 C) SSTS AND BEGIN TO MAKE ITS TRANSITION TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. BY TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUAL SOUTHWARD TRACK, FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST MODEL ENVELOPE HAS A 95 NM SPREAD BY TAU 24 WHICH SLIGHTLY INCREASES TO 105 NM BY TAU 96. BECAUSE THIS THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK TO SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY UP TO TAUS 24 AND 36, THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION MODEL GUIDANCE DID TRIGGER, HOWEVER THE COAMPS-TC INTENSITY GUIDANCE DID NOT SHOW ANY INDICATIONS OF RI DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: BASED OFF STRUCTURE ANALYSIS OF TC 14S AND THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A HYBRID SYSTEM SHARING BOTH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DECOUPLED OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO THE STRONG (35-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC ENALA IS CURRENTLY BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS IT STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL NATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC ENALA TO BE IN UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, OFFSET BY STRONG (35-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND BORDERLINE WARM (25-26 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS A 280048Z SAR RCM3 IMAGE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION FOR TC ENALA IS IMMINENT. TC ENALA CONTINUES ITS QUASI-STATIONARY POSTURE AS THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY REPOSITIONS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO KEEP ITS MOISTURE DUE TO CONSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT TC ENALA AND WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN FURTHER DECAY OF THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH, FOLLOWED BY A CURVE NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SENDS THE TC POLEWARD. DURING THIS RECURVING SCENARIO, TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF BATTLING THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 150.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 280324Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272343Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30KT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. IT IS LIKELY THIS LLCC IS A SPINNER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROADER AREA OF ROTATION. INVEST 96P CURRENTLY SITS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH (35-40KT) VWS, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL TRACK TOWARDS VANUATU. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36- 48 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL TRACK TOWARDS VANUATU. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36- 48 DAYS.