TC 14S(VERNON) got rid of Invest 93S, set to intensify a bit next 36/48h//Over-land TC 15S(ANIKA)//Invests 94P & 95S, 28/18utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 14S(VERNON). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 14S, OVER-LAND TC 15S AND INVEST 94P.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 14S WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND THEN TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS BY 48H, AFTERWARD, THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL HAMPER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY 96H, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING TRANSITION BY 120H AND WEAKENING TO 50KTS.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IS NOW TUCKED BACK UNDER THE MAIN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION AND IS GAINING INTENSITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, AND A PARTIAL 281100Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCIES CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND ADT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND SYMMETRICAL NATURE IS ALSO INDICATIVE OF A DEEPENING SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINIMAL SPREADING AT 48H WITH A MAX OF 220KM, THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS TO 600KM BY 120H WITH AFUM THE FAR LEFT OF TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 126.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY 350 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WYNDHAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. A 281356Z ASCAT B PASS REVEALS MOSTLY 15 KNOT WINDS OFF SHORE WITH SOME 20-25 KNOT WINDS EAST OF THE LLC IN KING SOUND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25TKT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IF 15S TRACKS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 15S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA BEFORE EMERGING OVER WATER AROUND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 165.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 167.2E, APPROXIMATELY 100 KM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 280526Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). IN ADDITION, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO INCLUDE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4S 109.9E, APPROXIMATELY 450 KM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281358Z ASCAT B PASS DEPICT A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IS SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.