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TC 14S(ENALA) gradually weakening next 48h//Over-land remnants of CAT 5 11S(FREDDY)//Invest 94P set to intensify//2515utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 14S(ENALA) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY).
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 14S(ENALA) AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY).
JTWC PH
 Joint Typhoon Warning Center
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20230225_0600_abpwsair.jpg 20230225.0600.abpwsair.jpg  (795.36 KB)

TC 14S(ENALA) gradually weakening next 48h//Over-land remnants of CAT 5 11S(FREDDY)//Invest 94P set to intensify//2515utc

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 14S(ENALA). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS AT 25/12UTC.

TC 14S(ENALA) gradually weakening next 48h//Over-land remnants of CAT 5 11S(FREDDY)//Invest 94P set to intensify//2515utc
1423021900 100S 913E  20
1423021906  98S 903E  20
1423021912  97S 894E  20
1423021918  98S 888E  20
1423022000 100S 871E  20
1423022006 102S 856E  20
1423022012 103S 843E  20
1423022018 103S 831E  20
1423022100 105S 817E  20
1423022106 116S 799E  20
1423022112 124S 782E  25
1423022118 131S 765E  25
1423022200 137S 754E  30
1423022206 142S 750E  35
1423022212 149S 742E  50
1423022218 158S 732E  50
1423022300 165S 725E  50
1423022306 175S 719E  65
1423022312 186S 714E  65
1423022318 196S 712E  75
1423022400 208S 709E  75
1423022406 220S 705E  70
1423022412 228S 700E  70
1423022418 234S 695E  65
1423022500 242S 691E  55
1423022506 250S 686E  50
1423022512 257S 681E  50
 

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WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 25/09UTC

TC 14S(ENALA) gradually weakening next 48h//Over-land remnants of CAT 5 11S(FREDDY)//Invest 94P set to intensify//2515utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM INUNDATED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VWS, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT SMAP PASS AND THE RATE OF DETERIORATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSET BY STRONG VWS.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM INUNDATED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VWS, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT SMAP PASS AND THE RATE OF DETERIORATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSET BY STRONG VWS.


FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NW WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING, FORCING THE CYCLONE IN A QUASI- STATIONARY (QS) MODE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12, AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS QS.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ENALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NW WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING, FORCING THE CYCLONE IN A QUASI- STATIONARY (QS) MODE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12, AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER, WHILE THE SYSTEM IS QS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36; AFTERWARD, THE MEMBERS SPREAD OUT ERRATICALLY, AN INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36; AFTERWARD, THE MEMBERS SPREAD OUT ERRATICALLY, AN INDICATION OF A WEAK VORTEX. IN VIEW OF THIS THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

SMAP AT 25/0112UTC: 10MINUTE MAXIMUM WINDS= 49 KNOTS= 56 KNOTS(1 MINUTE)


RCM2 AT 25/0055UTC: 1MINUTE MAXIMUM WINDS= 67 KNOTS.

TC 14S(ENALA) gradually weakening next 48h//Over-land remnants of CAT 5 11S(FREDDY)//Invest 94P set to intensify//2515utc

OVER-LAND REMNANTS OF TC 11S(FREDDY). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 25/12UTC.


ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 145 KNOTS CAT 5 US.

TC 14S(ENALA) gradually weakening next 48h//Over-land remnants of CAT 5 11S(FREDDY)//Invest 94P set to intensify//2515utc
1123020412 127S1168E  20
1123020418 122S1173E  20
1123020500 118S1178E  25
1123020506 115S1184E  25
1123020512 114S1189E  25
1123020518 116S1193E  25
1123020600 120S1193E  30
1123020606 123S1191E  35
1123020612 127S1189E  45
1123020618 134S1185E  55
1123020700 139S1178E  65
1123020706 143S1170E  75
1123020712 146S1161E  90
1123020718 149S1153E  95
1123020800 151S1145E  90
1123020806 155S1138E  90
1123020812 160S1130E  80
1123020818 162S1120E  70
1123020900 157S1110E  65
1123020906 154S1103E  60
1123020912 154S1098E  50
1123020918 156S1092E  60
1123021000 153S1080E  70
1123021006 152S1075E  70
1123021012 148S1065E  70
1123021018 147S1056E  75
1123021100 148S1049E  80
1123021106 148S1039E  95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E  95
1123021312 154S 946E  90
1123021318 154S 934E  90
1123021400 154S 925E  95
1123021406 154S 910E  95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E  85
1123022200 211S 468E  70
1123022206 217S 450E  45
1123022212 221S 434E  25
1123022218 220S 424E  30
1123022300 222S 413E  30
1123022306 224S 404E  40
1123022312 226S 396E  55
1123022318 228S 387E  55
1123022400 225S 376E  60
1123022406 224S 365E  60
1123022412 226S 350E  50
1123022418 226S 345E  45
1123022500 226S 338E  40
1123022506 228S 333E  30
1123022512 229S 331E  30



SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN: INVEST 94P. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 25/12UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 25/06UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 179.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 179.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.


MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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2023sh94_avnodiag_202302251200.png 2023sh94_avnodiag_202302251200.png  (118.77 KB)



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, February 25th 2023 à 19:13
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