TC 12P// INVEST 90S// INVEST 91P//10 DAY ECMWF Storm Tracks// 1103utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 12P.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P DEVELOPED A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WHICH ALLOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO ALIGN VERTICALLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (ULCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH, ALONG WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, ALLOWED TC 12P TO STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DVORAK ESTIMATES INCREASED TO T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). A 102110Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THE DECISION TO REGENERATE TC 12P. FIRST, THE LLCC CLEARLY SHIFTED UNDER THE CORE CONVECTION, ALBEIT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SECOND, THE 25 KM PRODUCT SHOWED NUMEROUS 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED WINDS IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ASCAT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. RECENT MSI SINCE ABOUT 102230Z, INDICATES THE LLCC IS DECOUPLING FROM THE ULCC AND STALLING, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. RECENT EIR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CORE CONVECTION DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AS IT SHEARS TO THE EAST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE SETS AND REESTABLISHES THE ORIGINAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE INTENSITY REMAINING NEAR 35 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: IN GENERAL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK WITH A NORTHWARD TURN THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD SHARP TURN. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TURN. ECMWF SHARPLY TURNS THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE GFS SHOWS A BROADER TURN SKIRTING THE WESTERN COAST OF VITI LEVU NEAR TAU 48. SEVERAL MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF VITI LEVU BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DECOUPLING. THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) FORECASTS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION.