TC 11S(FREDDY) re-intensifying making final landfall in 24/36h near Vilanculos/MOZ//TC 14S(ENALA)//Invest 94P//Invest 93S//2303utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 11S(FREDDY) AND TC 14S(ENALA).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS REFORMED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) CROSSED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN BACK OVER WATER FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT HAS NOT YET EXPANDED OVER THE LLCC ITSELF. A 221923Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A BROADENED CORE WIND FIELD WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 NM AND A SLIGHT ELONGATION FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS SAME ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND ABOUT 50 NM WEST OF FREDDY, WHICH HAVE REMAINED IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SOME DRY, STABLE AIR IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION, AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO EQUATORWARD DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES PUSHING INTO THE STORM.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) HAS EMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE IN 24-36 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH GUIDES FREDDY ACROSS THE CHANNEL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS FREDDY REGENERATES DEEP CONVECTION AROUND ITS STILL WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE BROADNESS OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE WAKE OF CROSSING MADAGASCAR LIKELY PLACES A LIMIT ON HOW RAPIDLY THIS INTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY ALSO RESTRAIN THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A RANGE OF PEAK INTENSITIES FROM 40 TO 60 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE, SHOWING A PEAK OF 55 KT IN 24 HOURS, CLOSEST TO THE HWRF, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS MODELS. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AXISYMMETRIZATION OF FREDDY'S CONVECTIVE CORE WILL OCCUR DURING THE 12-24 HOUR PERIOD AS DEEPLY MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AROUND TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE, REPLACING THE DRY AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, HENCE JTWC'S ASSESSMENT THAT THE HWRF, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC. THERE IS A NORMAL (MODERATE) LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OVERALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, PER THE DISCUSSION IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY-CURVED CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 221542Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE IN FACT SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED, NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL ABOUT 25-30 NM IN DIAMETER. AN EARLIER 221225Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE VORTEX WAS TILTED SOUTHWESTWARD WITH HEIGHT AT THAT TIME, CONSISTENT WITH AN EXPECTED RIGHT-OF-SHEAR TILT WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENTLY NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR VECTOR OF AROUND 15 KT MAGNITUDE. LIGHT NORTHERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO THIS SHEAR ARE RESTRICTING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, BUT ENHANCING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AIDED BY AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-DERIVED ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KT, LEANING TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF THAT RANGE DUE TO THE ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) HAS A WELL-ORGANIZED INNER CORE, THOUGH TILTED WITH HEIGHT DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT. THE CIRCULATION IS COMPACT AND POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE, ADVECTED INWARD BY THE SHEAR. THIS SHEAR WILL ALSO INTENSIFY SUBSTANTIALLY WITHIN 12-24 HOURS, INCREASING TO 25-30 KT IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINE TO IMPOSE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THE UPPER TROUGH AS A JET STREAK INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF ENALA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE VIGOROUS CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. ENALA IS THUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE AS FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS COUNTERBALANCE EACH OTHER. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST HAS SOME ADDED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO ENALA BEING A SMALL, TILTED CYCLONE THAT IS LIKELY TO RETAIN BOTH OF THESE CHARACTERISTICS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STORM STRUCTURE IS PRONE TO QUICK INTENSITY CHANGES EITHER UP OR DOWN DUE TO ITS COMPACT INNER CORE AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SENSITIVITY TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. FOR NOW, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR ENALA IS STRAIGHT FORWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTS THE STORM SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATER FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ERODE, LEAVING ENALA IN WEAKER DEEP-LAYER STEERING CURRENTS. ITS MOTION DURING THE 72-120 HOUR PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON ITS INTENSITY, WITH A WEAKER, DECOUPLED VORTEX TRACKING MORE WESTWARD, AND A STRONGER VORTEX TRACKING MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING 96-120 HOURS, FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS MODERATE SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A NOTCH WEAKER BEYOND 48 HOURS.