TC 08S(DANILO) warning 5, Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 97P, 02/21utc update

2021 JAN 02 2330UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 5
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 11.1°S 72.4°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 72.7E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A
021701Z ASCAT-C WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 42
KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED
ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 021745Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C).
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 93S, APPROXIMATELY 323NM
SOUTHEAST, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM 93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN
QUADRANT OF TC 08S, WHICH IS SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE ONGOING FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE
02/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC, WHICH SHOWS LARGE
SPREAD (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, SIMILARLY, SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK, TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12-24. AFTER TAU 24, INVEST 93S
WILL APPROACH WITHIN 100NM AND THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL FUJIWHARA AND
INVEST 93S WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD. THE COMPLEX TRACK SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 12
THEN WEAKENING AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE. AFTER TAU 48,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE WITH WARM SST (28-
29C), IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH AND LOW VWS--THIS SHOULD ALLOW TC 08S TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.//
NNNN
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INVEST #93S
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 14.6°S 76.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
WEAKENING
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
LOW
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS .
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S 80.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 77.4E, APPROXIMATELY 498
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. INVEST 93S IS CURRENTLY 350 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TC 08S AND HAS BEGUN FUJIWARA INTERACTION. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021609Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND ISOLATED
FLARING CONVECTION. A 021610Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND
ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF MOSTLY 10-15KT WINDS ADJACENT TO AN
EXTENSIVE REGION OF 25-30KT GRADIENT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN TC 08S WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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INVEST #97P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #GULFOFCARPENTARIA
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 16.0°S 138.5°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS .
ABPW10 PGTW 022030
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 59
NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 021245Z METOP-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 97P IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE STEADILY
INTENSIFYING. NEAR TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL,
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau