TC 07S(CHALANE) is bearing down on Beira/MOZ with top gusts nearing 150km/h close to the center, 29/18UTC Update

TC 07S (CHALANE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY285 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.TC CHALANE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TOWARDS BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE THROUGH 12H AT WHICH POINT IT WILL MAKE
LANDFALL WITH TOP GUSTS NEAR 150KM/H NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE(BELOW 35KNOTS) BY 24H AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF ZIMBABWE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 12H WITH ONLY A 80KM SPREAD THAT INCREASES TO A MAX OF 103KM BY 24H.
2020 DEC 29 2050UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #07S #CHALANE
WARNING 11
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 29, 2020:
Location: 19.7°S 37.7°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 37.0E.
29DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AROUND THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
LOOP (EIR). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WITH ALL STEERING WINDS IN PHASE FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE INITIAL LOCATION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL BANDING EVIDENT IN A TIMELY
291740Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE FROM
FMEE (T3.5/55KTS) AND NEAR A PGTW CI OF T4.0/65KTS AND A 291614Z
CIMMS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANALYSIS OF TC 07S INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(31 CELSIUS) SST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND FAIR UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC CHALANE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE STR TOWARDS
BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE THROUGH TAU 12 AT WHICH POINT IT WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF ZIMBABWE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH ONLY A 43NM SPREAD THAT INCREASES TO A
MAX OF 56NM BY TAU 24. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 300900Z.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau