TC 07S(ANA) intensifying and bearing down on MOZ// Invest 96W now MEDIUM and Invest 91W on the map, 24/03utc

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 455KM NORTHEAST OF THE DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232146Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO MEANS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST SOUTH OF NACALA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE WARM SSTS, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW VWS WILL SUPPORT NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK NEAR 50-55 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH CANNOT BE CAPTURED IN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INCREMENTS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 24 HOURS OF LANDFALL.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AFTER EMERGING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC ANA HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WHILE MOVING OVER OPEN WATER. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT -85C AT THE 0000Z HOUR, BUT HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WARMED BUT THE SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. A 232250Z GPM COLORIZED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH SIDE, WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE, BUT IN LINE WITH THE FMEE AND THE ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (47 KNOTS). SSTS REMAIN WARM (29-30C), VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND EQUATORWARD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FROM 00H. THE JTWC FORECAST DEPARTS FROM THE GUIDANCE IN KEEPING THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY THE SAME, WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY TREND MATCHES THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND BY 36H.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 850KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS.