TC 07P(HALE) now subtropical//Invest 95P on the map// 10 Day ECMWF storm tracks// 0809utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 07P(HALE) AND INVEST 95P.

080900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 169.1E. 08JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HALE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT 07P IS BEING RIPPED APART ON ITS POLEWARD JOURNEY PARTIALLY EXPOSING A HIGHLY IRREGULAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. HAVING ALREADY PASSED SOUTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND UNDERGOING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RELENTLESS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, TC HALE IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AND LOSE ALL REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE STT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT COURSE AND SPEED THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL TURNING POLEWARD AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET.//

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT COURSE AND SPEED THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL TURNING POLEWARD AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTH.

TC HALE IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AND LOSE ALL REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE STT.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 170.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 175.3E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080500Z HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING BROAD DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INDICATIVE OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 95P TAKING A STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY, THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND EVENTUALLY COMBINING WITH THE REMNANTS OF 07P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.