TC 06S(ANGGREK) powerful CAT 4 US within 48h//TC 08S(CANDICE) peaked//TC 07P(KIRRILY) peaked at Typhoon Intensity//2609utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 06S AND ON TC 08S. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE STILL ISSUED ON OVER-LAND TC 07P.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (ANGGREK) TRAVELING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS WITH A TIGHT, CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE EIR IMAGERY INDICATES EYE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 15C, WHILE CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES REACH AS COLD AS -80C AS THE STORM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 5-10KTS AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27-28C CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION OF 16.9S 86.5E WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE POSITION IN A 260525Z EWS-G2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN RCM-1 252341Z PASS SHOWING 105KT MAXIMUM WINDS AS WELL AS THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS ANTICIPATED TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, TAKING THE STORM TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48. THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF TAU 120 AS TC 06S CURVES SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. LOW LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PERMIT THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO AN ANTICIPATED 120KTS BEFORE THE STORM BEGINS TO GENERALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY STARTING AT TAU 60 DUE TO A LOSS OF OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BEYOND TAU 72 RESULTING FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING AS THE STORM TRANSITS SOUTH. TC 06S WILL ULTIMATELY BE DECAPITATED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND SHEAR AT TAU 120, WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE INTENSITY TO 80KTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TC 06S TRACK AS SHOWN BY A SMALL CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENTIAL AT TAU 48 OPENING TO A 200NM CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENTIAL BY TAU 120. JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48-60 BEFORE LOSING INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60-120. ONE OUTLIER IS COAMPS-TC, WHICH ANTICIPATES AN INITIAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 90KTS BY TAU 36, AND INCREASES TO 120KTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE LOSING STEAM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ANALYSIS MAY SUGGEST THAT COAMPS-TC IS PICKING UP ON AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, EXPLAINING THE DRASTIC DIFFERENCE. HWRF ALSO IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER TAKING THE STORM INTENSITY UP TO 140KTS AROUND TAU 48-60 AND BRINGING IT TO A DRASTIC DECLINE AT 40KTS BY TAU 120.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12, AT WHICH TIME THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR EAST OF THE LLCC WILL TURN THE TC TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ASSESSED AS MARGINAL AT 260000Z, ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 12, CAUSING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE TC UNTIL COMPLETE DISSIPATION OCCURS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12, TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINING FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 139NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 48 BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBER, CONVEYING MODERATE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 08S HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, COMING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48.