JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 05P(CODY) AND TC 06P(TIFFANY).
11/0220UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/GULF OF CARPENTARIA: TC 06P(TIFFANY). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 11/03UTC.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC TIFFANY WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE GOC AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR WILTON, NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, AROUND 30H. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY 24H. AFTERWARD LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE RAPID EROSION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY 48H.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS PARTLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 102336 ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06P IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SST IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VARYING DEGREES IN THE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD THE TERMINATION OF THE FORECAST. NVGM AND UEMN ARE ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE AND OFFER THE EARLIEST TURN WHILE GFS AND AEMN ARE ON THE RIGHT MARGIN WITH THE POLEWARD TURN OCCURRING MUCH LATER. OVERALL, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: TC 05P(CODY). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 11/03UTC.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: CHANGED TERMINAL TC PHASE TRANSITION FROM SUBTROPICAL TO EXTRA-TROPICAL. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC CODY WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE NEW STORM MOTION BECOMING MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL OFFSET THE VWS AND ALLOW A SLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 55KTS AT 24-48H. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY 48H, IT WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY 72H WILL BECOME A 50-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONVECTION BEGAN TO RE-FORM OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL EVEN AS THE SOUTHERN FEEDER BANDS APPEAR TO BE FRAYING WITH EXPOSURE TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS, AS EVIDENCED BY TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE 102153Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND A SEMI-CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 102107Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA WITH WARM SSTS, MEDIUM VWS, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
