TC 05S(BELAL) should be intensifying more than 50 knots/72hours while dangerously approaching REUNION & MAURITIUS islands//1303utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 05S(BELAL).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION, WITH INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THROUGHOUT THE LAST SIX HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAVE CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS BLOW OFF EJECTS BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, ALLOWING FOR SUPPORTIVE DUAL-CHANNEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SLIGHT NOTCHING OBSERVED IN THE 122206Z ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY MICROWAVE SOUNDER (ATMS) IMAGERY AND IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID AND CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE T3.0 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) OF EASTERLY SHEAR, THE AFOREMENTIONED DUAL-CHANNEL FLOW, AND WARM SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED DIRECTLY TO THE EAST.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS THE RIDGE DRIVES THE STORM TRACK TOWARD MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. BY TAU 24, THE OVERALL MOVEMENT BEGINS TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, TC 05S WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION NEAR THE TAU 72, AND CONTINUE INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ONGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS DESTRUCTIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND ALLOWS FOR INTENSITY TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 105 KNOTS IS FORECAST INTO TAU 72 AS WELL WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DIRECTLY THROUGH THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. AN EXPECTED RAPID DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SSTS, WHILE VWS INCREASES WILL INDUCE A WEAKENING OF 05S INTO TAU 120 AS THE STORM PROGRESSES POLEWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT NAVGEM, WHICH IS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, IS CONFINED TO A 70-75NM ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACKER THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (RI), WITH MULTIPLE RI AIDS VERIFYING. ALL MEMBERS OF THE OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON A LEVELING OFF OF STORM INTENSITY AFTER TAU 60, FOLLOWED BY SLOW, BUT STEADY WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 05S MOVES INTO OPEN WATERS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THEN TRACKS INTO THE CONSENSUS NEAR THE MEAN AFTER TAU 108.