TC 05S(BELAL) is forecast to hit REUNION island by 48h with gusts potentially over 200km/h//1315utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 05S(BELAL).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING AND A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SPARSE BUT A 130953Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A DEVELOPING INNER CORE AND POSSIBLE EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY LOWER AND RANGE FROM 46-51 KNOTS. A SENTINEL-1A SAR PASS IS SCHEDULED AT 131500Z BUT IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE CENTER.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR AND WEAKEN THE STR. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 05S WILL TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REORIENTED STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 96, THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW FOR SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION AS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATE EASTWARD, WITH DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE STR BUILDS BACK IN AND A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. THE 130600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE (GFS VERSION) CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE WITH PEAK 90 TO 95 PERCENT RI PROBABILITIES THROUGH TAU 30. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED WITH RIPA SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 93.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130739Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE CENTER, AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.