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JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 06S(ANGGREK). WARNINGS WERE TERMINATED ON TC 05S(BELAL) AT 19/03UTC.3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON BOTH SYSTEMS AND ON INVEST 90P.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 06S(ANGGREK). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS AT 19/06UTC : +15 KNOTS OVER 24HOURS.
0624011700 98S 941E 50
0624011706 101S 940E 50
0624011712 104S 940E 45
0624011718 109S 940E 45
0624011800 112S 939E 45
0624011806 116S 938E 45
0624011812 119S 937E 45
0624011818 122S 935E 45
0624011900 123S 932E 55
0624011906 124S 929E 60
0624011706 101S 940E 50
0624011712 104S 940E 45
0624011718 109S 940E 45
0624011800 112S 939E 45
0624011806 116S 938E 45
0624011812 119S 937E 45
0624011818 122S 935E 45
0624011900 123S 932E 55
0624011906 124S 929E 60
WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 19/09UTC.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: DESPITE SOME DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED NOTICEABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE, WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. A 190324Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT WITH A WEAKER, FRAGMENTED EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ROBUST AS IS EVIDENT ON THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A BULLSEYE 190327Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
TC Warning Graphic
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECASTED TO TURN SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 72, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES COMPLEX WITH RIDGING SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, CAUSING A VERY SLOW, ERRATIC TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS. TC 06S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 60 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 THEN WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72 BOTH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS (GEFS AND EPS) AND DETERMINISTIC TRACKERS INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH ERRATIC QUASI-STATIONARY TRACKS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) GUIDANCE.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 05S(BELAL). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AT 19/06UTC. PEAK INTENSITY WAS 90 KNOTS/CAT 2 US.
0524011006 97S 614E 15
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011718 237S 644E 45
0524011800 239S 650E 45
0524011806 241S 653E 45
0524011812 239S 656E 45
0524011818 236S 651E 35
0524011900 233S 646E 35
0524011906 233S 639E 30
0524011012 103S 617E 15
0524011018 109S 617E 15
0524011100 115S 615E 20
0524011106 120S 604E 20
0524011112 121S 596E 25
0524011118 124S 587E 25
0524011200 128S 578E 25
0524011206 130S 572E 30
0524011212 134S 566E 35
0524011218 140S 561E 40
0524011300 148S 555E 45
0524011306 156S 549E 50
0524011312 166S 543E 55
0524011318 175S 537E 65
0524011400 183S 536E 75
0524011406 191S 535E 80
0524011412 197S 533E 85
0524011418 201S 539E 90
0524011500 205S 545E 85
0524011506 208S 555E 80
0524011512 213S 561E 75
0524011518 216S 569E 55
0524011600 222S 578E 55
0524011606 229S 591E 55
0524011612 230S 599E 50
0524011618 234S 613E 50
0524011700 238S 623E 55
0524011706 240S 629E 50
0524011712 242S 636E 50
0524011718 237S 644E 45
0524011800 239S 650E 45
0524011806 241S 653E 45
0524011812 239S 656E 45
0524011818 236S 651E 35
0524011900 233S 646E 35
0524011906 233S 639E 30
WARNING 14/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 19/03UTC.
REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 64.3E. 19JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND EROSION AS THE MAIN CONVECTION WAS SHEARED 150+ NM FROM AND FULLY EXPOSING THE LLCC, AS OBSERVED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, RESULTING IN A COMPLETE LOSS OF CONVECTIVE SUPPORT THROUGH STRONG (25-30KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 12 OR SOONER. 2. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 17 FEET.
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN/CORAL SEA: INVEST 90P. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 19/06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190344Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 90P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 91S.
Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 01/19 00UTC+ 10 DAYS
