09/0110UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: TC 05P. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 09/03UTC.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12H WITHIN THE COMPETING STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER 12H, THE STR SHOULD BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH 60H WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. AFTER 60H, AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE STR ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNDER A BROAD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH, HOWEVER, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS EXPECTED AT 36H. AFTER 36H, TC 05P WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER 96H, TC 05P IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES AND PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES. TC 05P IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH ARE HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CORE CONVECTION.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (EPS AND GEFS) SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY-EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK IS MEDIUM. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST WITH HWRF PEAKING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 55 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER 72H, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST VALUES (26-27C).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/CORAL SEA: INVEST 90P. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 09/00UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 147.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CENTER. A 082010Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH IMPROVED OUTER BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). BOTH ECMWF (08/12Z) AND GFS (08/18Z) ARE NOW INDICATING A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
BOTH ECMWF (08/12Z) AND GFS (08/18Z) ARE NOW INDICATING A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA.
BOTH ECMWF (08/12Z) AND GFS (08/18Z) ARE NOW INDICATING A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA.
08/18UTC. ECWMF AT +240H.
