TC 04S(ALVARO) intensifying// 3115UTC

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 04S(ALVARO).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY AS DEPICTED IN RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. EIR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT, WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 311122Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. THE AMSR2 37 GHZ IMAGERY INDICATES A BETTER-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE POSITIONED ABOUT 15 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK, FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.

THE AMSR2 37 GHZ IMAGERY INDICATES A BETTER-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE POSITIONED ABOUT 15 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS CURRENTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS FORECAST TO ENVELOP THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY THEN DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 72, THE REMNANTS WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN WITH GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH STRENGHTHENING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) SHOULD LIMIT THIS REINTENSIFICATION PHASE. TRACK MOTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.