TC 04S(ALVARO) 2nd short-lived intensity peak //3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation probability// 0306utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 04S(ALVARO).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURST THAT IS FULLY OBSCURING THE NEWLY FORMED LLCC. A 030027Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A LINGERING DISSONANCE BETWEEN A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY VISIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TRAILING SLIGHTLY BEHIND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AUTOMATED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE 35-50KTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF NER TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WARM SSTS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW 04S TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 45KTS AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, COOLING SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 04S AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ACCELERATES INTO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IF 04S IS ABLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND THE ANTICIPATED CEILING NEAR 45KTS, THE SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN STORM FORCE INTENSITY LONG ENOUGH TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THE SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO ATTAIN ANY MEASURABLE SUB-TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR THE SUITE OF RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHOSE AGREEMENT IS POOR. GFS AND SHIPS SHOW A SMALL CLIMB THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGH DISSIPATION WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS INTENSIFY 04S TO NEARLY 60KTS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MORE INLINE WITH GFS AND DECAY-SHIPS ALBEIT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

One tropical cyclone formed during the past week. Tropical Storm Alvaro formed over the Mozambique Channel, making landfall over southwestern Madagascar on January 1st with maximum sustained winds of 60kt. Forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center show TS Alvaro tracking over the southwestern Indian Ocean and tracking southeastward, well south of Reunion and Mauritius. During Week-2, MJO activity over the Indian Ocean is expected to weaken the +IOD response and produce broadly favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development across the southern Indian Ocean. A broad hazard is included in the outlook, spanning a region from the Mozambique Channel to almost 100E. Several tropical cyclones may form within this region, though there is insufficient model consistency to pinpoint higher probability regions within this envelope. As the MJO progresses eastward to the Maritime Continent during Week-3, favorability for tropical cyclogenesis drops across the south-central Indian Ocean, but increases in the vicinity of Australia. Dynamical model forecasts do not show specific regions where formation is more probable, but a broadly enhanced signal is forecast to become established. Additional tropical cyclogenesis is possible during Week-3 in the vicinity of Madagascar. Although dynamical model forecasts continue to highlight the Bay of Bengal for tropical cyclone formations, there is less consistency in recent runs, and climatology does not favor formations in that region.